People around the world are concerned about food issues. October 16th was World Food Day. The reporter specifically learned about the current international food situation. Since June this year, international food prices have skyrocketed. The "food security" problem caused by this has left many experts uneasy.

The data shows that the risks of food price and agricultural product price linkage at home and abroad and upstream and downstream still exist, and the current concerns about food issues have not been completely eliminated. Experts believe that the linkage between international grain prices has become increasingly diverse and complex. In addition to the supply and demand fundamentals, the US dollar index, international oil prices, market speculation and other factors may open the channel for price transmission. Experts suggested building a "safety network" for food security.

"high fever"

International food prices remained high <br> <br> with the end of the United States weather speculation, rising food prices significantly weakened momentum. In recent days, the international grain price has oscillated back down, but it has remained at historically high levels.

“The current international food situation is very worrying, but it has not reached the crisis.” Fan Shenggen, director of the International Food Policy Research Institute, said that to avoid restrictions on exports, blind subsidies and imports, led to further panic and crisis.

Fan Shenggen believes that the drought in the United States is responsible for the rise in international grain prices. Long-term factors include the United States’ bioenergy policy, continued population growth, increasing demand from developing countries, and changes in dietary patterns. The rising food prices will have a greater impact on the poor, which will lead to a reduction in food consumption and a drop in the quality of food for the poor.

The latest report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on the State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 states that even if high food prices do not necessarily directly lead to a decrease in the total calorie intake of the population, high food prices may still have other negative effects, such as a meal. The decline in quality, other basic needs such as medical care and education cannot be fully satisfied.

According to the data reported above, between 2010 and 2012, the number of long-term undernourished people in the world was close to 870 million, and most of them live in developing countries. It is estimated that there are about 850 million people in total, that is, nearly 15% of the population is undernourished.

The issue of global food security has raised concerns among countries. It is understood that Russia will implement grain intervention measures from October 23 onwards. The government has demanded that no speculative behavior be allowed during the implementation of the grain intervention policy, and it is forbidden to use the national grain reserves for export.

For the impact on China, experts interviewed by the reporter generally use "limited" to describe. Qin Fu, director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that the rise in international food prices “has a limited impact” on domestic wheat, rice, and other varieties. The main reason is that domestic self-sufficiency rates are relatively high, and there is a large amount of reserves for regulation. Supply is guaranteed; only soybeans have an external dependence of 70% to 80%, which is affected by the international market.

“China’s grain production has increased year after year in recent years and the state’s food security situation has improved.” Li Guoxiang, research fellow at the Institute of Rural Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the rising food prices driven by high costs have highlighted the problems faced by “low-income” “middle-income groups”. In particular, the average protein intake of Chinese farmers is less than the international food safety standards, so in the future more attention should be paid to "national food security."

Food or fermented alert conduction effect <br> <br> level this year, China's CPI is expected to remain at around 2.7%, in the future need to pay close attention to the impact of agriculture and agricultural prices and imported inflation on the CPI --- This is the People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang expressed his opinion recently.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, the consumer price index (CPI) in September rose by 1.9% year-on-year, a low level since 2010. It is worth noting that, as the price of pork continued to fall, the prices of grain and oil continued to rise in July and September. The price of food in September rose by 3.7%, and the price of oil rose by 4.1%, which became an important factor in promoting CPI.

In addition, according to the commodity economic data report released recently by the Business Club, the rise in agricultural and sideline products in the third quarter of 2012 exceeded 80%, of which the price of soybean meal rose by 23%, wheat, soybean, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, corn, and early indica rice Both are also rising.

Although grain and oil prices at home and abroad have recently declined, with the arrival of the peak season for the consumption of agricultural products in the fourth quarter, the possibility of transmission of food prices has increased. Taking edible oil as an example, Tan Xiaoxiao, an economic analyst of Xinhua News Agency, believes that on the one hand, the price of raw materials such as domestic soybeans and peanuts is expected to be stronger on the one hand, and the production cost of edible oil processing enterprises is still under pressure; on the other hand, at present, In the busy season of consumption of edible oil, the demand for edible oil has been increasing steadily in recent years. Follow-up “New Year’s Day” and other holiday factors will also significantly increase the demand for edible oil, and the price of cooking oil may still rise.

In addition, a report released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization at the beginning of the month showed that, after two months of stabilization, the food price index rose slightly by 1.4% in September from the level in August, among which the increase in cereal prices was slower while the price of meat rose strongly. The prices of pig-raising and poultry-raising industries that use food-consumption feed increased by 6% and 2% respectively from August, indicating that the impact of rising food prices on downstream meat products gradually emerged.

However, due to sluggish domestic demand, China's meat prices have not seen any improvement. Data show that pork prices have continued to fall since October, significantly lower than the same period in 2011. Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sogou.com, told reporters that due to the current oversupply, it is difficult for farmers to transfer raw material costs. Since mid-July, feed prices have risen by 15%, while pork prices have only risen by 5%, and the rising costs are mainly borne by feed mills and aquaculture companies.

Unlike last year's market, domestic feed prices also rose from May to September last year, while pork prices also rose sharply. Feng Yonghui said that if food and feed prices continue to rise, causing farmers to continue to lose money and start eliminating the sows so that the relationship between supply and demand will change, pork prices may actually rebound.

Fan Shenggen believes that the soaring price of soybeans and corn will certainly be transmitted to China, which will lead to an increase in the price of pork in China. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing. The increase in prices will help boost domestic production enthusiasm.

Safeguard the construction of food "safety network"

The linkage relationship of international grain prices has become increasingly diverse and complex. In addition to the supply and demand fundamentals, factors such as the US dollar index, international oil prices, and market speculation may open the channel for price transmission. Experts suggest that a "safety network" for food and agricultural products should be constructed to reduce the transmission effect of rising food prices and reduce the impact of rising food prices on consumers, especially low-income groups.

"The relationship between food prices and oil prices has become more and more tight, and fluctuations in oil prices will affect food prices, and price fluctuations will have adverse effects on producers and consumers." Fan Shengen said that we must find ways to cut off bioenergy. The relationship between production and food prices.

Fan Shenggen believes that the use of second-generation cellulose technology should be considered, instead of directly using grain to produce bio-energy, eliminating the subsidy policy on bio-energy, and the policy of how much bio-energy must be contained in fuel.

For China, to reduce the impact of rising international food prices, the most fundamental measure is based on domestic food production. Qin Fu suggested that we must increase the level of domestic grain supply, guarantee the area and quality of cultivated land, build more high-yield and stable-producing farmland, strengthen the support of science and technology to increase yields, and mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers, enterprises, and local governments in agricultural production.

At the same time, improving the animal husbandry business level is an important measure to weaken the conductive effect of food prices. According to the research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, due to the backward development of the animal husbandry, the rise in food prices cannot be effectively digested. Since 2003, the increase in the price of meat products in China has often surpassed that of grain, and the increase in the price of live pigs generally exceeds that of corn.

Experts believe that the ability of smallholders to face changes in the market and risks is low. By increasing the efficiency of production and operation of livestock products and strengthening the construction of circulation systems for agricultural products, it will effectively absorb the rise in food prices.

Improving the structure of meat production and consumption also helps to reduce the correlation between "pig food". Ma Yu, a partner of Boya Hexun Agro-pastoral Technology Co., Ltd., said that because of the higher efficiency of poultry consumption of food, the consumption of food can be greatly reduced if the production of poultry is limited by the production of pork and beef. Poultry is an alternative to pork and beef and mutton in the future, which will help relieve food demand pressure.

In addition, Fan Shenggen also proposed to establish a “social security network” to increase targeted protection for vulnerable groups in the process of rising food prices, and at the same time establish a strategic inventory for dealing with the crisis.

The World Food Programme recently stated that solving the problem of hunger requires more extensive use of social “safety networks” to protect vulnerable populations. The “safety network” is a project aimed at ensuring access to adequate nutritious food for the poor, including school nutrition meals, food vouchers, Cash conversion and mother and child nutrition plans.